JUST weeks after its formation, the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement faces its first challenge: the escalating conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi militia. The rebel group has struck Saudi air bases and key oil facilities with missiles and drones, while the kingdom has intensified air strikes on Houthi-held areas in Yemen. The Houthis have also targeted Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea.

The escalation began in mid-July, when the Houthis formally declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia and began hitting Saudi-flagged shipping, after Yemeni government forces attacked a flight from Iran at Sana’a airport. The Houthis have been fighting Yemen’s internationally recognised government since 2014. The violence subsided after the warring sides reached an internationally brokered ceasefire in 2022, but flared up again after the July incident when the militia broke the truce, declared a blockade on Saudi shipping in the Red Sea and began attacking Saudi vessels. Its ultimate aim is to drive Saudi Arabia out of Yemen and take full control of the territory.

This latest escalation has widened the conflict in West Asia, even as America’s war with Iran grinds on with no end in sight. With the fighting now threatening Saudi Arabia directly, will the kingdom invoke the alliance’s mutual defence clause — the one that treats an attack on one member as an attack on all members? The danger of a wider conflagration engulfing the entire region carries serious implications for the rest of the world.

The Houthis, who already hold much of Yemen, have seized a strategic island in a lightning offensive against government forces, giving them complete control of Bab al-Mandeb — the key marine chokepoint through which 12 per cent of the world’s trade passes. They now control 90 per cent of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline. The Houthi leadership says it is not seeking to block all commercial shipping in the Red Sea, only Saudi-linked vessels.

But the heightening tension is likely to keep other ships away. With the Strait of Hormuz virtually blocked, the situation is explosive. Global energy markets, already reeling from the six-month conflict between US-Israel and Iran, are bracing for further shock.

Saudi Arabia, which had stayed out of the Iran war, now risks being drawn into a wider conflict.

These actions by a militia widely seen as aligned with Iran have opened a new front in the conflict. They have coincided with a drone attack, apparently launched from Iraq by allegedly another Iran-linked militia, that forced temporary closure of the East-West oil pipeline crossing Saudi Arabia. Together, the attacks have disrupted Saudi oil exports. It is widely accepted that Iran backs the Houthis, though the group also operates independently of Tehran. The attacks on Saudi Arabia are certainly not in Iran’s interest while it is engaged in an existential war with the US — the fallout is already visible.

Saudi Arabia, which had so far kept itself out of the Iran war, is now in danger of being drawn into a wider regional conflict. Although Iran has distanced itself from the attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure by the two militias, the incidents have heightened tensions between Riyadh and Tehran. Following the attacks, talks between Iran and the Gulf states aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz were postponed. It would have been the first meeting between Iran and the main GCC member states in two years; the meeting, to be held in Oman, was part of an effort to find a regional solution allowing free passage through the critical waterway. The latest flare-up has thwarted that effort.

As the fighting spreads, Saudi Arabia finds itself on the front line. In the latest turn, the kingdom reportedly sought American military help, only to be turned down by President Donald Trump, who said the Houthis had assured him they did not want to expand the conflict. The development has given an intriguing twist to the conflict. Trump’s response is said to be driven by his frustration with the kingdom for failing to actively support his war against Iran.

America and Israel have carried out missile strikes against the Houthis in the past over their support for the Palestinian resistance. But there is also the question of whether US intervention in the Saudi-Houthi conflict will help stabilise a situation for which Washington is itself responsible. The growing tension between Iran and Saudi Ara­bia will only serve the US agenda in the region.

So far, Saudi Arabia has not formally invoked the Makkah defence alliance clause, which would require Pakistan and Turkiye to come to its def­ence if it is attacked. But consultations are under way as the conflict spreads. Diplomatic efforts to halt the Houthis’ escalatory moves are still continuing. Reportedly, Pakistan’s military chief and the Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan both spoke to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Pakistan is also believed to have conveyed a Saudi message urging Iran to rein in the Houthis, and reminded Tehran of Islamabad’s own pact commitment to Riyadh.

Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently said that unprovoked aggression against the kingdom, or a spillover into it, would make the pact operational — “there should be no doubt about that”. Earlier, in April 2026, Saudi Arabia’s defence ministry announced that a Pakistani military contingent had arrived at King Abdulaziz Air Base, with fighter and support aircraft, under a bilateral defence pact signed in September 2025. Following Khawaja Asif’s remarks, however, the Foreign Office spokesperson said, “I don’t think we should be discussing this topic in the context of its operationalisation”.

The situation remains dangerous for both Pakistan and the larger region, and the widening conflict could suck in even those countries that have kept out of the Iran war and have been trying to help broker a negotiated end to it. Pakistan needs to tread a more cautious path in a conflict that could prove disastrous for the country. It’s a perilous escalation that needs to be resolved through negotiations rather than war.

The writer is an author and journalist.

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X: @hidhussain

Published in Dawn, September 16th, 2026