The government is meeting some fiscal and monetary targets while missing reforms that would alter how the state and markets actually function. There is something increasingly tiring about watching these IMF reviews. The IMF mission arrives. The government presents its case. Officials hold meetings. Statements are issued. Then the Fund’s assessment comes out, identifying almost exactly the same strengths and weaknesses that were previously pointed out. The purpose of the reviews cannot simply be to pass successive tests. Yet much of the economic effort still appears organised around precisely that objective: meet the quantitative targets, secure the next tranche and move on to the next review.

The government has achieved an important degree of macroeconomic stability. Fiscal discipline has improved. Foreign exchange reserves have been rebuilt — even if they remain fragile. The external account is less precarious than it was. These are not small gains. But stability is supposed to create the space for reform and sustainable growth. It cannot become an end in itself. The more uncomfortable question is what has actually changed underneath the stabilisation numbers.

The IMF itself continues to point to delayed critical reforms, market interventions, weak governance and missed social-sector spending. The government has also yet to fully implement several legislative and institutional changes agreed under the programme. This suggests a bigger problem. The government, like its predecessors, may be trying to complete the programme without fundamentally changing the economic model that repeatedly produces the need for such programmes. Once the programme is completed and reserves rebuilt, it may loosen the fiscal and monetary brakes to accelerate growth before the election. The temptation will be to spend the gains of stabilisation on a short-term growth push and flaunt the resulting numbers as economic success. We have been there before — not once, not twice, but more than two dozen times. The danger is repeating this cycle after the current programme. Growth must come from structural reform, not spending the gains of stability and returning to the IMF yet again.

Published in Dawn, September 25th, 2026

Rebels in the northern Tigray region seized local airports and launched attacks into the neighbouring states of Afar and Amhara this week, saying they were once again in a “full-blown war” with the federal government.

Locals fear a repeat of the telecoms blackout and supplies blockade imposed on Tigray during the last civil war in 2020-2022 that killed an estimated 600,000 people.

Online monitor Netblocks said there was an “internet disruption in northern Ethiopia corresponding to reports of a telecoms blackout in Tigray”.

AFP was unable to contact sources in the region by phone on Friday.

A humanitarian source in Afar said there was “heavy fighting overnight” around the town of Abala that sits in the mountains on the border with Tigray.

“The federal forces pushed the rebels from entering the town,” the source said, adding that a drone was used by the army.

Heavy clashes occurred in North Wollo Zone of Amhara on Thursday, including around the Unesco World Heritage sites in Lalibela, home to Ethiopia’s famed rock churches.

Analysts say the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) appears to be repeating its strategy from the last war — pushing south through Amhara towards the capital, Addis Ababa, while the offensive in Afar is likely aimed at cutting off supplies from Djibouti, which provides almost all of Ethiopia’s international trade cargo, including fuel.

The TPLF has forged an alliance with six other armed groups around the country in a bid to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

“The alliance is likely trying to seize settlements alongside key infrastructure routes to undermine federal government’s ability to supply,” Edward Bach of consultancy firm Verisk Maplecroft told AFP.

The government has a significant military advantage, however, with a large arsenal of drones, an army numbering some 500,000, and the support of external actors, notably the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The renewed fighting comes at an awkward moment for the United States, which only this month lifted sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea related to atrocities committed during the last civil war, saying the “national emergency… has expired”.

The US embassy sided with Ethiopia’s government this week, saying it was “disappointed to see the leadership of the TPLF… launch a large-scale offensive”.

The conflict could also draw in neighbouring Eritrea, which fears landlocked Ethiopia is planning to invade it to gain access to the Red Sea.

Panic buying

Back in Tigray, prices for basic goods have been spiking as locals raced to stock up on supplies.

“There is panic in the community,” Samuel Gebreslassie, 37, who works in a spice shop in the Tigray capital, Mekelle, told AFP on Thursday.

“There is deep fear that banks, telecom networks, electricity and basic goods could be cut off again.”

The TPLF ruled the whole of Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018 before being sidelined with Abiy’s rise, eventually triggering a civil war marked by widespread war crimes and sexual violence.

The Pretoria Peace Agreement of 2022 maintained an uneasy calm until last year, but was never fully implemented, with around one million people still displaced.

Sporadic clashes then resumed, with the federal forces launching multiple drone strikes in Tigray in recent months and massing troops at the border.

Rights groups have accused the TPLF of a campaign of forced recruitment this year as it prepared for renewed conflict.

Third-seeded Noor defeated Hong Kong’s Chi Hin Henry Leung, while fifth-seeded Ashab overcame India’s Veer Chotrani at the Nagoya Kinjo Futo Arena to put Pakistan into the medal rounds of the event.

Noor, Pakistan’s top-ranked player in the draw, was pushed by Leung but held his nerve to secure a place in the last four. Ashab also produced a strong performance against the fourth-seeded Indian, recovering from losing the opening game to win 3-1.

Ashab prevailed 6-11, 11-8, 11-6, 11-6 to avenge Pakistan’s defeat to India in the men’s team final at the previous Asian Games.

The victories mean Pakistan are assured of at least a bronze medal in the men’s singles competition, with the losing semi-finalists awarded bronze.

The two Pakistanis had reached the quarter-finals without dropping a game, with Noor defeating Kuwait’s Ammar Altamimi 11-4, 11-9, 11-4 and Ashab overcoming Saudi Arabia’s Mohammad Al Alnafsan 11-9, 11-3, 11-5 in the last 16 on Thursday.

Noor and Ashab will now contest their respective semi-finals on Saturday, with a place in Sunday’s final at stake.