The warming phenomenon, which was declared in June and is due to peak later this year, is on course to be the strongest on record, amplifying the effects of human-induced climate change.

The estimates by the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago found that developing countries would be hit hardest by the heat-related toll in the June to February period.

The Sahel region in Africa could have an additional 66,800 heat deaths compared to a normal year, with nearly half of that number in Nigeria alone.

An additional 19,300 are projected in Indonesia and 19,400 in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia.

The toll could reach 15,800 in India and 13,300 in Brazil.

The researchers projected that global land temperatures will be 1.2C above normal in the coming months due in large part to El Nino, leading to 44 per cent more extremely hot days than in a regular year.

For the projections, the Climate Impact Lab used research on the relationship between temperature and excess mortality in 24,378 regions, taking local climate and vulnerability into account.

They then combined those findings with long-range temperature forecasts to estimate excess deaths that could result from El Nino compared with the 1996-2025 average.

Their method will be published in an upcoming peer-reviewed journal.

The report comes a day after the United Nations warned that El Nino represents a significant threat to global health.

The Climate Impact Lab researchers said their projections can help governments and humanitarian organisations take preventive measures to protect people, including heat warnings, cooling centres and hydration stations.

“This report allows decision-makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months,” said Climate Impact Lab co-founder Michael Greenstone.

The body of the 25-year-old businessman was found in Karachi’s Gulistan-i-Jauhar on July 29, a day after he went missing. After his family accused the police of trying to bury the facts, a judicial commission has been holding regular hearings to probe the circumstances and possible negligence in the murder case.

During Tuesday’s hearing, Karachi Police Surgeon Dr Summaiya Syed accused MLO Sheikh of instigating a “malicious campaign” against her after she had disputed the findings of Ali’s first post-mortem.

According to a written order for the hearing issued on Wednesday, Dr Syed had submitted a “letter coupled with a number of documents as evidence of the malicious campaign launched against her on the instigation” of Dr Sheikh.

The one-member commission, headed by Sindh High Court’s (SHC) Justice Omar Sial, noted that Dr Sheikh’s “motives and intentions appear tainted”.

“His conduct has attempted to damage the honour of this commission and to detract from and scandalise its real purpose.”

Justice Sial wrote that he was saddened to see the police surgeon request the commission “in a very graceful, polite and professional manner” to take notice of the “highly defamatory and dangerous social media campaign against her”.

Dr Syed informed the commission that she was under “immense mental anguish and that the material being circulated against her had set a very dangerous precedent that no senior henceforth should attempt to help rectify mistakes done by the junior for fear of prosecution”, the order stated.

The commission noted that Dr Syed was a distinguished and seasoned professional with an impressive academic and work background, and her being subjected to such harassment was “unacceptable”.

“She is an asset to the government. Rather than appreciate her services, she is being defamed.”

Dr Syed had also told the commission at a previous hearing that she faced “threats” after disputing the findings of the first postmortem.

In its order, the commission requested the National Cyber Crime Investigation Agency’s (NCCIA) Karachi director to investigate the issue of a message exchange between the police surgeon and Dr Sheikh.

It also urged the NCCIA to identify whether the defamatory messages circulating on the internet were “forensically satisfactory”, and determine who was responsible for the leakage of these messages on the internet.

It directed the NCCIA Karachi director to submit a comprehensive report to the commission before the end of its tenure.

During his previous appearance before the commission on Sept 1, the MLO had told the judicial commission that he was not under any influence or pressure while conducting the postmortem and had nowhere stated in his report that Ali had died by suicide.

For its part, the commission had expressed dissatisfaction with Dr Sheikh’s answers, questioned the discrepancies between his initial and final reports and asked whether he or a sweeper had conducted the autopsy.

He had maintained that he had conducted the procedure and that the final report was issued after the exhumation and second autopsy, following 14 objections by the police surgeon.

In a hearing on Monday, the commission also declined the MLO’s request to record a further statement, observing that he “appeared on social media” and said that he had “more to tell the commission than what he told it earlier”.

Tuesday’s hearing

In its Tuesday hearing, the commission recorded the statements of Abid Farooq Sumar, Asif Farooq Sumar, Faizur Rehman and Assistant Superintendent of Police (ASF) Nida Junaid. The statement of witness Sarim bin Tahir has also been recorded through Zoom.

The commission issued notices to Sindh Health Department Secretary Tahir Hussain Sangi, Senior Superintendent of Police (SSP) Samiullah Soomro and Provincial Emergency Operation Centre Secretary Shehryar Memon for their appearance on Thursday at 11am.

Memon has recently been appointed as the Sindh health services director general to replace Dr Pervez Ahmed Shaikh — a decision taken by the Sindh government on the day the latter testified before the commission and named Memon as the person who issued instructions to change the medical board formed for exhuming Ali’s body.

Notices were also issued to Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) and Investigation Officer (IO) Siraj Ahmed Lashari and CPLC Assistant Chief (Operations/Complaint Resolution Centre) Kashif Iftikhar for their appearance on Sept 28 (Monday) at 11am.

According to the order, during Tuesday’s hearing, Ali’s family said they believed another special medical board was being considered. The family did not get any reply upon approaching Deputy Inspector General Amir Farooqi for confirmation.

In his order, Justice Sial further observed that if the Ali family’s information was correct, such a move would nullify the commission’s work to date.

“The commission will then be unable to give its conclusive findings. It will narrow the commission’s terms. The Government of Sindh has incurred substantial expenses in running this commission,” Justice Sial wrote.

The absence of “reliable, efficient, and complete communication” between the deceased’s family and the police was fueling public speculation, the judge noted.

The commission requested the Sindh inspector general (IG) that a duly authorised police focal person be appointed to communicate with the family and provide official information to the press and media.

The judicial panel noted that the witness statement again revealed that the entire record had not been provided to it.

“Even after repeated reminders, such a lack of relevant records is regrettable,” the order said.

Addressing a cabinet meeting in Peshawar, CM Afridi alleged that for the past three to four days, “plainclothes individuals” had been targeting PTI workers, office-bearers and elected representatives.

He alleged that an assassination attempt was made on Communications and Works Minister Shakil Khan, who also managed to evade an attempt to abduct him.

CM Afridi further alleged that Minister for Public Health Engineering Fazal Shakoor was abducted by plainclothes individuals, who also opened fire on his car.

“If a minister, a provincial cabinet member is not safe from these thugs, then what about the common man?” he asked. The chief minister emphasised that the treatment being meted out to provincial cabinet members was “unacceptable”.

“These people are afraid of the power of the people. No sane person would take such measures,” he asserted.

He also assailed PML-N’s Rana Sanaullah’s reported remarks labelling the people of KP as terrorists and Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz remarks regarding the terror threat from other provinces.

He said that from today, the province would be cut off from the rest of Pakistan and all routes to it would be closed.

“The rest of Pakistan will remain open, but no one will be able to enter or leave KP,” he said.

“What should we make of cutting KP off from the rest of Pakistan and closing all routes? Is there a conspiracy underway? Is an attempt being made to repeat the East Pakistan tragedy?” he asked.

“Whatever conspiracy is being hatched, and whoever is behind it, our clear message to them is: Pakistan belongs to us,” the chief minister said. He asserted that KP was and will continue to be a part of Pakistan.

“Goons dressed in plain clothes are intimidating and threatening our bureaucracy, police, deputy commissioners and district police officers,” he further alleged.

The chief minister advised that the bureaucracy, police, deputy commissioners and district police officers to not to be afraid.

“If the provincial government is not asking you to do anything wrong, do not obey unlawful orders from any institution or department,” he said.

“Protesting is everyone’s legal and constitutional right. We will stage a peaceful protest because we are not being heard anywhere … the Constitution allows us to hold peaceful protests, and we will protest at all cost,” he said.

“As long as the right to peaceful protest exists in the Constitution, we will continue to hold peaceful protests,” CM Afridi maintained.

“My message to the people of KP and the entire Pakistan is: do not panic, do not be afraid,” he said.

Preparations in the Rawalpindi Division and the federal capital territory to maintain security and deal with any emergency situation are in full swing in light of the potential long march by the PTI and other protests in Islamabad.

Earlier this week, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi had warned the PTI against its long march, urging the party to refrain from proceeding with the protest.

The interior minister vowed the government will not “leave any loopholes” in its response if the party went ahead with the protest.